Prime Highlights-
- P. Morgan estimates the combined GLP-1 weight-loss drug market in China, India and Brazil could grow from $6.6 billion now to $22 billion by 2035, as better affordability and wider access draw in large patient groups.
- China is set to lead the expansion, with analysts expecting it to overtake Brazil by 2027 and reach a $13.7 billion market by 2035.
Key Facts-
- The market could grow about 15% a year.
- India has the smallest of the three markets.
Background-
The combined market for weight-loss drugs in China, India and Brazil could reach $22 billion by 2035, up from $6.6 billion now, J.P. Morgan has estimated.
Analysts led by Yang Huang expect the market to grow about 15% a year as drugs become cheaper and easier to get. They point to the large diabetes and obesity burden in all three countries. GLP-1 drugs, including Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, rank among the most sought-after medicines worldwide.
China and India hold more than 25% and 15% of the world’s diagnosed diabetes cases, while about 12% of Brazilian adults live with the disease. China’s overweight and obese population could pass 65% by 2030, and India’s adult obesity rate may reach 11% by 2035.
The analysts said GLP-1 is shifting from a developed-market theme to a wider global access story. They cited patent expiries, generic launches and policy-led price cuts as drivers.
Room for growth remains large. Use stands below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, against 4% to 5% in the US. Brazil leads today, but J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake it by 2027 and reach $13.7 billion by 2035, versus $8 billion for Brazil, helped by wider reimbursement.
India is the smallest market. Affordability and cultural attitudes will shape how fast it grows.
The brokerage named Innovent, Divi’s Laboratories, Torrent Pharmaceuticals and RD Saude as key stocks to watch.
